Communities are facing a lot of uncertainty and fear around the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Nonprofits and foundations have a unique role in creating resilient communities that can weather real or potential health dangers. But the amount of information available can leave nonprofit and foundation leaders overwhelmed and paralyzed with uncertainty about the best path forward. That’s where scenario planning can provide some much needed clarity.
Scenario planning is a structured way for organizations to think about the future. Scenarios are just stories about how the future might unfold and how those future conditions could impact the organization. Scenarios challenge your conventional assumptions and help you deal with times of uncertainty.
Scenario planning is the intersection of organizational strategy, which is the sum of the actions the organization plans to undertake to meet its long-term goals; forecasting, which is using data from the past to estimate future trends; and environmental analysis, which asks that you understand the factors external to the organization that can impact its operations.
Scenario planning is a critical skill for nonprofits and foundations. It allows you to identify a variety of possible futures, and then you can use the best- and worst-case scenarios as planning tools. The Oxford Scenarios Planning Model works well during times of changing outside forces, like now. I’ve created a tool to help your organization think about how Coronavirus might impact your organization or the people you serve. It is intended to help you brainstorm with your staff, board and constituents.
Coronavirus Scenario Planning Tool for Nonprofits
When I have used this tool in the past I used painter’s tape to create 4 quadrants in a highly used conference room. I labeled the quadrants and kept 2 colors of post it notes nearby. Yellow for opportunities and pink for challenges. You brainstorm opportunities and challenges for each of the quadrants. I would suggest keeping the chart up for a least a week to get a wide variety of input. For example, identify a challenge if Coronavirus spreads in your community in regards to your role as an employer. Some ideas might be:
-If schools close, employees will have a hard time securing childcare.
-Staff will need to remote work if social distancing is encouraged.
It will probably be much harder to think of opportunities but some examples for this quadrant might be:
-Organization will develop universal rules about remote work that could strengthen employee satisfaction in the future.
-Organization will develop emergency response protocols that are useful for a variety of emergencies.
Now for foundations:
Coronavirus Scenario Planning Tool for Foundations
Foundations have an additional responsibility to understand how this virus could impact grantees and how they are responding. That could mean un-restricting previous grants so grantees can be nimble and address community needs. It could mean connecting a grantee with an expert resource or it could be as simple as changing reporting dates to give grantees more time to do critical work.
I would encourage you to start thinking about challenges and opportunities and start prioritizing where you can take immediate action. Often there are ideas that show up in all quadrants, start working on those because they will be useful, no matter what the future holds.
Additional Resources
World Health Organization- COVID-19 Updates
Could the coronavirus hit California’s homeless populations? Health officials are worried.
Philanthropy’s Response to the Coronavirus Outbreak
About the author:
Trista Harris is a philanthropic futurist and is an experienced disaster grantmaker. She is the President of FutureGood, a consultancy committed to helping visionary leaders build a better future. She offers consulting and strategy support for nonprofits and foundations that are developing their Coronavirus response strategies. Learn more about those services here.